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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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FOXNEWS
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the state polls, the battle ground state polls suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them but the national polls have a tie. it is striking to see this difference. it is sobering if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or tied in so many of the states. could the polls be wrong? they could. whether they are, we are wait dog find out. >>chris: you have been traveling the country if weeks and months, jeff, your sense of where this stands 48 hours out? >> much different in battle ground states because of the advertising. people in ohio and people in iowa, florida, and virginia, have a different sense of the race. the reason pennsylvania is in play because there has not been a lot of advertising. in the battleground states and i was in ohio and wisconsin and iowa and what you pick up, there is a real sense of enthusiasm for the romney campaign. i did not run into one republican party who is not happy about electing mitt romney opposed to someone to beat president obama. that is a significant change. on other side, the excitement and enthusiasm i
the state polls, the battle ground state polls suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them but the national polls have a tie. it is striking to see this difference. it is sobering if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or tied in so many of the states. could the polls be wrong? they could. whether they are, we are wait dog find out. >>chris: you have been traveling the country if weeks and months, jeff, your sense of where this stands 48 hours...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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MSNBC
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the poll says obama will win in the swing states. nate silver says obama is ahead in the swing states and win the electoral college. the polls are usually right. the model acknowledges the polls could be wrong. that chance is at 15% based on the same sort of analysis i gave earlier that look there are a few examples when the polls are off this much. ken buck, sharon engel, hilary and obama in new hampshire but more the exception than rule therefore obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't think that makes, you know, nate silver or myself or anyone else who stairs at the polls and says obama is favored, you know, being incredibly insightful. polls are right and pollsters get the credit. if obama loses i don't think nate silver should be panned out. i don't think either. >> never pan you. >> you could use your wizardry to answer this question. isn't it quite possible at this point in terms of electoral college when you're looking at the key battleground states the president has a lead in most them. isn't it possible the president w
the poll says obama will win in the swing states. nate silver says obama is ahead in the swing states and win the electoral college. the polls are usually right. the model acknowledges the polls could be wrong. that chance is at 15% based on the same sort of analysis i gave earlier that look there are a few examples when the polls are off this much. ken buck, sharon engel, hilary and obama in new hampshire but more the exception than rule therefore obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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FBC
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lou: real clear politics does something interesting, compare, poll, polls for today, that poll to 2004, 2008, 2008, at this juncture, president then senator obama was running six and a half points ahead of senator mccain, in 2004, bush had a one and a half point lead on senator kerry, is that instructive or just sort of an amusing glimpse at history. >> political junkies, heard those were margins of 2004, and 8 for those who like to say national polling does not amount to much this is accurate. it is the state by state polls, that is less productive. but i make a basic point about the storm, i know a lot of democrats, if you go to liberal blogs, they are all holding hands, say it will be okay, they are trying to make a political point to of the way that president is responding to the hurricane. the average american, looks at what happened on east coast, they see a human tragedy, they do not see a political proving ground, all these dc pundits who are trying to make a political moment out of obama in new jersey or obama reaction, they are so disconnected from the way that american peopl
lou: real clear politics does something interesting, compare, poll, polls for today, that poll to 2004, 2008, 2008, at this juncture, president then senator obama was running six and a half points ahead of senator mccain, in 2004, bush had a one and a half point lead on senator kerry, is that instructive or just sort of an amusing glimpse at history. >> political junkies, heard those were margins of 2004, and 8 for those who like to say national polling does not amount to much this is...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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FOXNEWS
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but a cnn poll has 50-48, obama. nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week rasmussen had romney up by 2. and nbc has the president up by 6 points. got all that? joining us now from boston, david. he directs polling. >> he want to run it down from your point of view. you have canvassed the whole country, know what's going on. ohio, how do you see it? >> i see it really close. if you look at the last four polls, it's one point. 1 through 8 the poll was average four to five points. what we look at is the head-to-head number. the last three consecutive polls, excluding the two you mentioned were at 48. that's a sign of vulnerability. ob
but a cnn poll has 50-48, obama. nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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CURRENT
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and that's just one poll, the cnn poll but a combination of polls still has president obama comfortably up. >> four polls in ohio two twos, a four and a five. >> cenk: then in nevada president obama has a three-point lead in nevada. if he leads in nevada and ohio, it's a no-brainer, he's a winner. the electoral college is on his side. on the other side, meat loaf is on romney's side. he's about to do one of the worst renditions i've ever seen of any song. let's watch. ♪ everybody sing ♪ america ♪ america ♪ god ♪ his grace on thee ♪ crown thy good ♪ from sea ♪ from sea ♪ to shining ♪ sea ♪ >> that--a couple of things to say. first of all he blew the lyrics point one, not the song. romney in the beginnini, u co d tellultehahameat loaf is going off the deepened, romney is frigid, if we let that video continue romney quickly moves to the other end. >> two points you made are good, two out of the three. >> cenk: i'm sorry i had to subject the audience to that. unbelievable. >> were they trolling his campaign? >> cenk: like they were trying to embarrass romney. romney no
and that's just one poll, the cnn poll but a combination of polls still has president obama comfortably up. >> four polls in ohio two twos, a four and a five. >> cenk: then in nevada president obama has a three-point lead in nevada. if he leads in nevada and ohio, it's a no-brainer, he's a winner. the electoral college is on his side. on the other side, meat loaf is on romney's side. he's about to do one of the worst renditions i've ever seen of any song. let's watch. ♪ everybody...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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MSNBCW
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obama was polling the same way the whole time. in 2000 there was this assumption that it was going to break for bush and it never did. >> for those of us who work long hours, sometimes it's hard to remember, it's exciting. it's an exciting time, right? it could go either way. i think what you're seeing is part of the reason that it's not. we always talk about a break and then don't end up seeing onenessly. it's all about turnout now. it's all about getting voters to the polls. so who has momentum and who doesn't, it's a momentum game. >> number two, the break for gore and it was barely -- and the real break happened in democratic senate races. >> it's interesting, going back to 1984, very quickly, the difference in that break and obviously we were still in diapers back then -- >> i was out of diapers. maybe i shouldn't have been. >> veg began appeared to have the confidence and appeared to be the incumbent. >> i've had romney people admit to me they have to have some momentum. they believe it's a point in turnout. that's why they
obama was polling the same way the whole time. in 2000 there was this assumption that it was going to break for bush and it never did. >> for those of us who work long hours, sometimes it's hard to remember, it's exciting. it's an exciting time, right? it could go either way. i think what you're seeing is part of the reason that it's not. we always talk about a break and then don't end up seeing onenessly. it's all about turnout now. it's all about getting voters to the polls. so who has...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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CURRENT
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polls have always shown president obama up by a couple of points in iowa. that has tightened a little bit but the democrats are feeling confident about iowa, a two- or three-point cushion for the president there. and some of the issues for iowa are different from the rest of the nation. another thing they can point out, they can afford to lose iowa. as long as the president wins nevada and ohio, let iowa go and new hampshire. they're going to continue to hard there but there are a lot more different places where the president can get the 271. >> eliot: it sounds like the president may not be sleeping well, but he's sleeping better than mitt romney if you sum it all up. david shuster, thank you so much. >> you're welcome. >> eliot: i'm heading over to hbo for realtime with bill maher. i'll see you back here on monday.
polls have always shown president obama up by a couple of points in iowa. that has tightened a little bit but the democrats are feeling confident about iowa, a two- or three-point cushion for the president there. and some of the issues for iowa are different from the rest of the nation. another thing they can point out, they can afford to lose iowa. as long as the president wins nevada and ohio, let iowa go and new hampshire. they're going to continue to hard there but there are a lot more...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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WBFF
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the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend to be done by and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them. it is -- seems striking that there would be this difference. and we don't know. but, it is sobering, if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or, just tied, in so man
the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no...
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Oct 28, 2012
10/12
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WBAL
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poll, obama is still looking fairly strong in ohio. i guess if you had to put your savings somewhere you would probably say -- chris: so an electoral victory but a popular vote loss. >> my head says the seam thing but my gut is saying what i started this segment with. beats me. i mean, really. romney had to pass a major test. and he passed it. chris: in the first debate. >> in the first debate. these debates are about one thing and one thing only. whether or not you want to have this guy in your house for the next four years. chris: once he's in the house, hard to get him out. >> i agree. i agree with this completely. >> that obama spent the entire summer trying to con -- convince people you don't want this guy in your house and romney turned that around. chris: once he is in the leaving room -- in the living room watching tv -- i'm more skeptical of people saying i feel good about this. wait a minute. anyway, heerks the president hitting mitt romney as the change you can't believe in. >> there's no more serious issue in a presidential
poll, obama is still looking fairly strong in ohio. i guess if you had to put your savings somewhere you would probably say -- chris: so an electoral victory but a popular vote loss. >> my head says the seam thing but my gut is saying what i started this segment with. beats me. i mean, really. romney had to pass a major test. and he passed it. chris: in the first debate. >> in the first debate. these debates are about one thing and one thing only. whether or not you want to have...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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MSNBCW
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until florida our new poll has president obama up. ohio we still have the president holding his lead. 51% to 45%. and in a recent poll of likely voters in virginia, the president was up 2 points, a statistical tie and nbc news has it's own coming out tomorrow morning. look at the ad spending in these three states. more than half a billion collectively in the mega states of flohva. they're not just spending money there, they're spending time. the president will have visited the sunshine state 14 times, for mitt romney it's 16. president obama will have made 19 stops in ohio, governor romney will be there 21 times. so let's get to our special panel. adam smith is the political editor, chris booker, wcmh and larry sabado. larry, let me start with you. the state of virginia, last time it was the closest to the country, the national popular vote. it was the one point off if you will of what obama -- mccain's numbers were, does the winner of the popular vote win virginia, larry? >> i think virginia is very very, close, chuck. i think you co
until florida our new poll has president obama up. ohio we still have the president holding his lead. 51% to 45%. and in a recent poll of likely voters in virginia, the president was up 2 points, a statistical tie and nbc news has it's own coming out tomorrow morning. look at the ad spending in these three states. more than half a billion collectively in the mega states of flohva. they're not just spending money there, they're spending time. the president will have visited the sunshine state 14...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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CNN
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some polls show the state tightening, but generally, it's been moving more towards romney than the obama camp would have hoped. >> what about on the race front, we look at the white and non white vote split. what do you see? >> you see the president per foming significantly underneath that 40% margin that john king took. this is difficult to talk about because you don't like seeing our politics polarized by race. democrats have had a deficit with white voters for more than 30 years. now, president obama made up a lot of that ground in 2008 and democrats have made up for it by having a significant edge, but this combination of a tough economy means that the president's having a hard time getting his white support above 40%. that is a real issue. in the long run, democrats have made a smart bet on diversity. republicans can't hope for a large share of the white vote to bring them over the top, but this is an issue in this collection and with the tough economy, huge implications that both campaigns are going to be paying a lot of attention to. >> thanks very much. race does matter in this e
some polls show the state tightening, but generally, it's been moving more towards romney than the obama camp would have hoped. >> what about on the race front, we look at the white and non white vote split. what do you see? >> you see the president per foming significantly underneath that 40% margin that john king took. this is difficult to talk about because you don't like seeing our politics polarized by race. democrats have had a deficit with white voters for more than 30 years....
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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. >> a national poll showing romney's national favorability at 53%, just shy of obama at 54%, there used to be a much greater gap there, are we saying that turn decideds are certainly playing a role in a big way here? >> yes, i think that usually, in most polling experts, most of the political experts who have studied this over the years, if you're undecided at this late stage, you have a tendency numb necessarily huge numbers, but in bigger numbers for the challanger as opposed to the incumbent. you've known the incumbent for four years, you've gotten used to it, you know what to expect. the challenger, if you're still undecided, there's a tendency to break for the challenger. >> do we think this election really will be this close? >> yes, i think it will be this close. i'm going to be anchoring our coverage, as you know, tuesday night, so i'm getting ready for a long night. four years ago at 11:00 p.m. on the east coast when the polls closed on the west coast, california, oregon, washington state, hawaii, we projected a winner of 270-plus electoral college votes for barack obama. i don
. >> a national poll showing romney's national favorability at 53%, just shy of obama at 54%, there used to be a much greater gap there, are we saying that turn decideds are certainly playing a role in a big way here? >> yes, i think that usually, in most polling experts, most of the political experts who have studied this over the years, if you're undecided at this late stage, you have a tendency numb necessarily huge numbers, but in bigger numbers for the challanger as opposed to...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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FOXNEWSW
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obama only got to 13%. they're even in the polls. aapparently they're even even in get out the vote effort. they're down to wire. no indication it will change in five days. >> dana: carl, thank you. we'll go to ed henry, with president obama in las vegas. ed, we have a new nickname for you coined by greg gutfeld. we thought you desevened one. election ed. take it away. >> reporter: i like it. that's great. just like campaign carl. bottom line, they are promising a new message for the president today. it will be more positive, less of the negative tone, ripping to mitt romney. this is his final case to what he did in wisconsin today, talking about what he would do in a second term. laying out that he wants to finish the change he talked about in the last four years. he did go negative on romney. not giving it up. he said romney claiming to be an agent of change and he knocked millions of people off the health insurance. he would go backward on wall street reform. obama landed in nevada now. he has three stops in wisconsin. six in ohio
obama only got to 13%. they're even in the polls. aapparently they're even even in get out the vote effort. they're down to wire. no indication it will change in five days. >> dana: carl, thank you. we'll go to ed henry, with president obama in las vegas. ed, we have a new nickname for you coined by greg gutfeld. we thought you desevened one. election ed. take it away. >> reporter: i like it. that's great. just like campaign carl. bottom line, they are promising a new message for...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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WMAR
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maybe not getting to the polls. >> i think i gave president obama 313. i have been going back and forth between 303 and 313. i'm still worried about some clearly. north carolina. the other thing in order for mitt romney to win, he has to have a large turnout on tuesday and 6 out of 10 voting to spot him just to overcome the huge numbers that president obama has wracked up. i believe that president obama will eke it out bare ly. >> it's going be a tight race. very quickly 20shgs seconds left. anybody see republicans taking control of the senate. >> no. >> i think they pick up two seats or one depending on how the caucus is. >> the 26th presidential race starts wednesday. >>> for all of you at home go to abcnews.com/thisweek to submit your predictions. >>> and now, we honor our fellow americans who serve and sacrifice. this week the pentagon released the names of twoselves members killed in afghanistan. >>> and we'll be right back with a look ahead to "this week." [ male announcer ] you're not the type of person who sets goals and only hopes to achieve the
maybe not getting to the polls. >> i think i gave president obama 313. i have been going back and forth between 303 and 313. i'm still worried about some clearly. north carolina. the other thing in order for mitt romney to win, he has to have a large turnout on tuesday and 6 out of 10 voting to spot him just to overcome the huge numbers that president obama has wracked up. i believe that president obama will eke it out bare ly. >> it's going be a tight race. very quickly 20shgs...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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KNTV
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. >> reporter: lynn, reuters ipsos, one of the latest national polls out there, gives president obama just a one percentage point lead nationally. that is a tie as the president heads back out today to speak with voters. president obama's back on the campaign trail. polls show him up by six in iowa, two in wisconsin and two in new hampshire, but this week he's focused on new jersey. >> we are not going to tolerate red tape, we are not going to tolerate bureaucracy. >> reporter: touring storm damage with republican rival governor chris christie. >> i cannot thank the president enough for his personal concern and compassion for our state. there will be some folks who will criticize me for complimenting him. well, you know what, i speak the truth. >> reporter: analysts say the president's picking up political points. >> the message that christie is sending voters is that obama is doing a good job. he's not a scary, socialist person, that he's somebody who can be trusted. >> reporter: in florida, governor romney criticized the administration's record helping small business. >> sometimes,
. >> reporter: lynn, reuters ipsos, one of the latest national polls out there, gives president obama just a one percentage point lead nationally. that is a tie as the president heads back out today to speak with voters. president obama's back on the campaign trail. polls show him up by six in iowa, two in wisconsin and two in new hampshire, but this week he's focused on new jersey. >> we are not going to tolerate red tape, we are not going to tolerate bureaucracy. >>...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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FOXNEWS
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be passing obama. he probably still does. look at the national poll. you cannot, if gallup is anywhere near right. gallup has him up six. say he is up three. you can't win national election by three points and lose in the electoral college. this is uncon zeable. if you win in popular vote you lose electoral in the year 2000 the margin is fraction of fraction of fraction of 1% of one state if florida. the national polls they are disconnected, you can't have a disconnect that large between the national and electoral college. >> i find ohio numbers hard to believe. if it is tight, obama only needs to win by one point. there is dismisssiveness about what i'll say but it's true, the ground game is vastly superior to what romney has in ohio, add a cupm of points to any poll. >> does this change it? >> the storm? no. i don't think so. in the situation, i think that you have to remember from the date obama got elected, obama for america has been building campaign targeted campaign. >> bret: thank you very much. next up, what the administration said, what it kn
be passing obama. he probably still does. look at the national poll. you cannot, if gallup is anywhere near right. gallup has him up six. say he is up three. you can't win national election by three points and lose in the electoral college. this is uncon zeable. if you win in popular vote you lose electoral in the year 2000 the margin is fraction of fraction of fraction of 1% of one state if florida. the national polls they are disconnected, you can't have a disconnect that large between the...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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MSNBCW
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there's a poll out showing president obama up four there. that's 270, even if you were to give romney iowa and colorado, he's at 268. not quite enough, and that's as tight as it gets, thomas. >> thanks so much. i will talk more with you, but i found out we're cutting to mayor michael bloomberg giving an update to hurricane preparedness for hurricane sandy. >> there's no chance the mass transit will be back in time to serve people. we're worried about cleanup, even though the storm should aabate dramatic alally into tuesday. sandy will make landfall south of atlantic city this evening, and that keeps new york city well within the damage zone of the storm. as of now we're under a coastal flood warning from now through 3:00 p.m. on tuesday. a high wind warning through 6:00 p.m. tomorrow. this is a massive storm. hurricane-force winds extend some 175 miles in every direction of this center. the storm may strengthen as it meets the cold front approaching from the northwest, and that is when it changes from a tropical storm to a nor'easter, who ha
there's a poll out showing president obama up four there. that's 270, even if you were to give romney iowa and colorado, he's at 268. not quite enough, and that's as tight as it gets, thomas. >> thanks so much. i will talk more with you, but i found out we're cutting to mayor michael bloomberg giving an update to hurricane preparedness for hurricane sandy. >> there's no chance the mass transit will be back in time to serve people. we're worried about cleanup, even though the storm...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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CNNW
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president obama holding a four-point lead in this new poll, slightly outside the margin of error and significantly right at the crucial 50% mark. so the question is, what is driving the numbers in ohio right now? chief national correspondent john king has some answers. >> well, anderson, that narrow ohio lead for the president is within the poll's sampling error but it is yet another poll showing the president with a small persistent lead in the state of ohio. let's take a closer look at why it is happening in this state that is so important in the pick for president. here's the main reason right here. governor romney gets the republicans. the president gets the democrats but at the moment, in our survey, the president has a narrow lead among ohio voters who define themselves as independents. that is the battleground in a big battleground state, if you win the independents you are likely to win. governor romney close but the president with an important edge among independent voters. there's also an age divide, if you look at likely voters in ohio. among voters under the age of 50, th
president obama holding a four-point lead in this new poll, slightly outside the margin of error and significantly right at the crucial 50% mark. so the question is, what is driving the numbers in ohio right now? chief national correspondent john king has some answers. >> well, anderson, that narrow ohio lead for the president is within the poll's sampling error but it is yet another poll showing the president with a small persistent lead in the state of ohio. let's take a closer look at...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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CNNW
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this poll shows president obama with a slim slelead, 49-47. >>> both campaigns are finding some talking points to drive home their closing arguments. here it is. unemployment ticked up to 7.9% while the economy added 171,000 jobs in october. that's more than most expected. earlier, i spoke with bill gross who runs the world's biggest mutual fund pinco if these numbers are enough to move voters and the markets. >> i'm not sure it is, victor. actually, the election may hinge on the length of gas lines in new jersey and new york on monday as opposed to the number of jobs announced on friday. in any case, the job creation number is sufficient going forward to certainly level the unemployment rate and, ultimately, over time, to produce a lower unemployment rate. it's a positive for the democrats and the obama administration, at least short term. we know that the election is about the economy. it is about, you know, two different visions in terms of an obama plan that basically suggests raising taxes on the wealthy, you know, to lower the deficit and romney plan that suggests tax reform that
this poll shows president obama with a slim slelead, 49-47. >>> both campaigns are finding some talking points to drive home their closing arguments. here it is. unemployment ticked up to 7.9% while the economy added 171,000 jobs in october. that's more than most expected. earlier, i spoke with bill gross who runs the world's biggest mutual fund pinco if these numbers are enough to move voters and the markets. >> i'm not sure it is, victor. actually, the election may hinge on the...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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CURRENT
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in ohio, that same poll shows president obama also up only 2 but two percentage points. 47% to 45%. in wisconsin where the president started his post-hurricane campaign today an abc news "wall street journal" maris poll has him up 49 to 46%. but governor romney is leading in colorado which is another state president obama visited today. the lead there is just one point, 47% to 46%. that's according to reuters ipso. back with us our three political junkies extraordinaire. pollster david herman, joe garifoli. from all of the polls, there were 29 polls that came out. you are the pollster. this momentum, is it baked in? >> the advantage obama has is baked in inn a lot of the states. i would be shocked to see romney take ohio. and if he can't take ohio, it is really hard to see what his path is. >> jennifer: virginia? >> i think obama takes virginia as well and i think he does it thanks to latino and asian voters. >> jennifer: interesting. he takes iowa. >> i think he takes iowa. >> and wisconsin. >> and wisconsin. >> and nevada. [ laughter ] >> those are all close. every one of those is
in ohio, that same poll shows president obama also up only 2 but two percentage points. 47% to 45%. in wisconsin where the president started his post-hurricane campaign today an abc news "wall street journal" maris poll has him up 49 to 46%. but governor romney is leading in colorado which is another state president obama visited today. the lead there is just one point, 47% to 46%. that's according to reuters ipso. back with us our three political junkies extraordinaire. pollster...
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and in wisconsin, the polling average has mr. obama ahead by more, by five points. then at 10:00 eastern time, polls will be closed in all of those states and we'll be closing polls in the 10:00 eastern time in that hour in the states that you see blinking right here. these four states. of those four states, iowa, montana, nevada, and utah, two of them are going to be watched really closely. those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily for the presidency. unless things go very, very differently than expected to go. this is how your election viewing is going to unfold hour by hour on tuesday night. if you just exclude the states f
and in wisconsin, the polling average has mr. obama ahead by more, by five points. then at 10:00 eastern time, polls will be closed in all of those states and we'll be closing polls in the 10:00 eastern time in that hour in the states that you see blinking right here. these four states. of those four states, iowa, montana, nevada, and utah, two of them are going to be watched really closely. those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right...
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the older university poll has a nine point lead for obama. two other polls in the last couple days with a five point lead. >> why is the president there? >> that makes total sense. he's in iowa, wisconsin and ohio. you can't see a avenue for romney to go in. he's helping out a senate candidate. she's in a very tight, tight close race. that really is a close one. obama coming in twice, i think is very helpful to her. >> the president is going to be in madison in a few days. how big a deal is that going to be? >> i saw the street closing list. it's going to be a little hard to drive around. he's bringing bruce springsteen who madison loves. it's going to be a morning rally. i suspect not a lot of work will get done that day. >> let's talk about paul ryan. this is unusual that man that's running for two seats in one day. is he in trouble in this house seat? this is probably the best candidate, i keep hearing this that rob zerban is the most formidable candidate that's gone against paul ryan. >> ryan has never had below 57% of the vote. he's won
the older university poll has a nine point lead for obama. two other polls in the last couple days with a five point lead. >> why is the president there? >> that makes total sense. he's in iowa, wisconsin and ohio. you can't see a avenue for romney to go in. he's helping out a senate candidate. she's in a very tight, tight close race. that really is a close one. obama coming in twice, i think is very helpful to her. >> the president is going to be in madison in a few days. how...